Since 2016, the PCB industry has recovered as a whole, and the supply-demand relationship of the industry chain has undergone profound changes. It is believed that the current PCB industry is in a new round of business cycle. From the following perspectives:
Upstream raw materials:
Copper foil has entered a price increase cycle since the second half of 2016, with a maximum of 110 yuan/KG. Since April this year, due to the comprehensive factors such as downstream price pressure and inventory handling, the price of copper foil has dropped. The current price is about 60- 70 yuan/KG.
Recently, we have received definite news from the industry chain that many copper foil suppliers have raised their order prices by 1,000 to 2,000 yuan per ton, and the effect of the price increase is becoming prominent.
It is believed that the previous price reduction of raw materials has oversold components, considering that the industry's off-season will pass, and copper foil manufacturers will inevitably adjust their production capacity, and a smooth price transmission mechanism will enable leading copper clad laminate and PCB manufacturers with bargaining advantages to pass on the cost of raw materials. The pressure of rising, thus gaining more room for performance elasticity improvement.
Downstream applications:
The annual growth rate of PCB market demand in multiple sub-sectors has reached more than double digits, which has become a new driving force for the upward trend of the industry chain:
1. The trend of new energy and electronization of automobiles is accelerating, and the automotive PCB market will reach more than 100 billion yuan; the automotive electronics certification cycle is long and the threshold is high, and new energy vehicles are expected to drive the PCB market to increase by tens of billions;
2. The prosperity of the small-pitch LED market continues to rise, and the demand for multi-layer PCB boards is strong;
3. The mobile communication technology is iterating rapidly, and the construction of high-density small base stations drives the demand for high value-added PCBs;
4. China's high-end server market is growing rapidly, and the demand for high-standard PCB products is increasing. In addition, the thinness and lightness of consumer/automotive electronics drives the increase in FPC volume and price, and excellent domestic manufacturers are expected to take advantage of the trend.
In the future, PCB listed companies will continue their development strategy of continuously adjusting product structure in response to downstream market demand, and continue to improve the company's overall profitability; on the other hand, compared with the upstream copper foil and copper clad laminate industries, there are many domestic PCB companies with product quality and production capacity. Production efficiency is uneven, competition is excessively dispersed, considering the dual considerations of resource acquisition and environmental protection factors, invalid production capacity will be phased out in a certain period in the future, industry concentration will be further increased, and high-quality PCB manufacturers in China are expected to rely on resource tilt and low cost, etc. The advantages stand out, accelerate the transfer of the global PCB industry, and replace major overseas factories to become the global leader.