PCB News - Eurozone's uneasy PCB production value may be revised down

Eurozone's uneasy PCB production value may be revised down

The Taiwan Circuit Board Association (TPCA) held a series of seminars on the general trend of the PCB industry on the 31st. During the conference, the Industrial Technology Research Institute (IEK) proposed an estimate of the second quarter prosperity of Taiwan’s PCB industry. The PCB output value in the first quarter decreased by 4.8%. In the European market, there are too many uncertainties and other factors. IEK estimates that the PCB output value in the second quarter will be flat, with a quarterly increase of 0.4%, and revised down its forecast for the growth rate of the PCB output value for 2012, from the 4.89 proposed in the first quarter. % Revised down to 2.53%.
IEK first reviewed the performance of the Taiwanese PCB industry in the first quarter of 2012. In the first quarter, the market entered the off-season, and the market was not willing to pull goods. It showed a downward trend compared with the previous quarter. The PCB output value in the first quarter of 2012 was NT$123.6 billion. The quarterly decrease is 4.8% and the annual increase is 7.5%. If priced in US dollars, the quarterly decrease is 3.1% and the annual increase is 6.7%.

Entering the second quarter, the IMF predicts that the global economic growth force in 2012 will increase by 3.5%, the United States is 2.1%, and Japan is 2%. However, the Eurozone is still in the debt haze of Europe, with an estimated GDP growth of 0.3% until April. The PMI even fell to 45.9, the consumer confidence index also fell to -19.9, and the unemployment rate soared to a record high of 10.9% in March. The European market is still an important source of global consumer demand.
Under various uncertain factors, IEK predicts that the output value of PCB in the second quarter will be the same as that in the first quarter, with an output value of approximately NT$124.1 billion, a quarterly increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%; the growth momentum in the first half of the year was weak. IEK also revised down its forecast for the full-year PCB production value growth in 2012. Originally, it was estimated in the first quarter that the PCB production value of Taiwanese and Taiwanese businesses would grow by 4.89%, with an output value of 526 billion yuan, but it is now at the NT dollar exchange rate. Under the default of 29.62, the 2012 annual output value is estimated to be approximately 519 billion yuan, an annual increase of 2.53%, and a half-reduction rate.
The prices of copper and gold, which have a greater impact on the PCB industry, are affected by the European debt crisis and the weak economic recovery in China and the United States. The prices have continued to fall. The international copper price in April was US$8,200 per ton, a monthly decrease of 2.8%; The US$1,781 per ounce in February fell to US$1,556 per ounce in May. In addition, the New Taiwan dollar has appreciated by about 3.35% since the beginning of 2012, and the U.S. dollar has also appreciated by 0.14%. Together with the continuous rise of the RMB, it will cause wages for Taiwanese PCB manufacturers. The pressure on costs, however, compared to the situation where the exchange rate fluctuated at the end of 2011, the exchange rate changes in 2012 will stabilize, and the profit difference caused by the exchange rate will be smaller.
From the perspective of the output value ratio of Taiwan and mainland factories, due to the decrease in high-end product shipments in the first quarter, the proportion of low-end products increased. Therefore, the production of mainland factories increased as a proportion of output value, and the output value of Taiwan factories dropped from 48.7% in the previous quarter to 47.7. %; the output value of the mainland factory increased from 51.3% to 52.3%; and among the products produced by the factories in Taiwan and the mainland, the only one with positive quarterly growth is only the soft board, which has accounted for Taiwan since the first quarter of 2011 The proportion of total production was 13.6%, rising quarter by quarter to 14.5% in the first quarter of 2012. Mainland China also increased from 13.7% to 15.1%, mainly from the growth momentum of products such as smartphones and tablet PCs.
In terms of the proportion of Taiwan’s PCB industry applications, the largest application in the first quarter of 2012 was semiconductors, which accounted for 33.5%, followed by communication products for 23.2%, consumer electronics for 16.1%, and computer-related products for 13.3%; among them, computer, consumer The proportions of sexual electronics and communication products both declined compared with the fourth quarter of 2011, which also showed that the off-season effect reduced the shipments of high-end products. In the first quarter, Taiwan’s mainland Taiwanese PCB industry applications were computer-related, accounting for 34.8%., Communication products accounted for 28.9%, and consumer electronics accounted for 23.1%, which is the only application category that has grown since last quarter.
[Related News] IEK under-repairs PCB annual output value growth forecast
The Industrial Economics Center (IEK) of the Industrial Technology Research Institute (IEK) has put forward an estimate on the prosperity of Taiwan's printed circuit board (PCB) industry in the second quarter of 2012. In the first quarter, the PCB output value decreased by 4.8%. There are too many uncertain factors in the European market. Under the circumstances that the US market has not yet recovered strongly and there is no significant growth momentum for electronic products, IEK estimates that the PCB output value in the second quarter will be the same as that in the first quarter, with a quarterly increase of only 0.4%, and revised downwards to the 2012 full-year PCB output value growth The range is expected to be revised down to 2.53% from 4.89% proposed in the first quarter.
Taiwanese businessmen on both sides of the Taiwan Strait PCB industry entered the off-season in the first quarter, and the market’s willingness to pull goods was not strong. Therefore, compared with the previous quarter, the output value of the Taiwanese businessmen in the first quarter totaled NT$123.6 billion, a quarterly decrease of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.5%; In U.S. dollar terms, the quarterly decrease is 3.1% and the annual increase is 6.7%.
Entering the second quarter, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that global economic growth in 2012 will increase by 3.5%, the US’s 2.1%, and Japan’s 2%, but the Eurozone is still in the shadow of European debt, the IMF estimates its GDP With a negative growth of 0.3%, the Eurozone's PMI from April to April even fell to 45.9, the consumer confidence index also fell to -19.9, and the unemployment rate soared to a record high of 10.9% in March.