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The global PCB industry has experienced the process of transferring production capacity from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other countries and regions to mainland China. The transfer trajectory of the PCB industry eventually tends to be concentrated, and mainland China has gradually become the world's largest PCB manufacturing base. Data show that in 2018, the output value of my country's PCB industry reached 32.702 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 10.0% year-on-year. It is estimated that by 2020, my country's PCB industry output value will reach 35.6 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year, and its share of the global PCB industry's total output value will increase from 8.1% in 2000 to 52.4% in 2018.
As early as 2016, due to the explosive growth of demand in the lithium industry, the production capacity of many copper foils was swallowed, resulting in insufficient supply of electronic copper foil and rapid price increases. At the same time, copper foil is also the core material of CCL in PCB. Under the pressure of rising prices of downstream raw materials, PCB prices are imperative.
According to statistics, in 2016, the price of copper foil increased by 50%-60%, the price of copper clad laminates increased by 40%-50%, and the price of PCB increased by 5%-15%.
From copper foil to PCB, although the price pressure of PCB manufacturers has been partially diluted. However, for many small and medium-sized PCB manufacturers in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, their pressure-bearing capacity is limited. In addition, at this time, the government investment welfare in Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan and other places is very attractive, and China's PCB industry has ushered in industrial transfer.
According to insiders, in 2016, Guangdong PCB factories were mainly relocated to Ganzhou, Jiujiang, Jishui, Huangshi, Hubei and Yiyang, Hunan.
By 2017, large-scale emission restrictions have spread from Kunshan, Jiangsu to Zhuhai, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places. In addition, at the end of 2018, the environmental protection tax was officially implemented, and its emission tax and waste gas tax increased by 3-5 times, and the operating cost of PCB manufacturers increased significantly.
In this context, in order to reduce the impact of PCB rectification on the industrial chain, a gradual rectification path from East China to South China has been formed.
At that time, the overall price increase of PCB manufacturers was as high as 20%, and the industrial transfer was imminent.
Today, three years later, PCB factories in the Mainland are developing in full swing. According to the above-mentioned industry insiders, as the forefront of the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta to undertake the gradient transfer of the PCB industry, Jiangxi Province has nearly 100 PCB factories, ranging from HDI to through-holes, ranging from 2016 to 2019. Among them, Longnan District of Jiangxi Province focuses on the development of high-end and high-value links in the electronic information industry, from new electronic materials and electronic components to copper clad steel plates, multilayer high-density circuit boards, and SMT, forming a complete electronic information industry chain, precision components, OLED and smart terminal products.
According to industry insiders, in the wave of external relocation in the PCB industry, it takes about one and a half to two years to build a factory from infrastructure construction to the entire configuration. So far, most PCB factories have moved in and have completed the first stage of production, and only 50% of PCB manufacturers have entered the production stage in Jiangxi.
It is worth noting that although many PCB plants have been put into production, they are basically at a loss in the next three years. Some small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on government subsidies may face restructuring.
According to industry insiders, “at present, except Foxconn, all printed circuit board manufacturers that have moved from Shenzhen to the mainland are losing money.” However, it should not be overlooked that although a considerable number of printed circuit board manufacturers have already put into production, they have failed Get good profits. In addition, emission restrictions and high-pressure environmental protection policies have become more and more stringent. The printed circuit board industry has entered a reshuffle stage, and the profitability of mergers and acquisitions is under pressure, and it has entered a reshuffle period. As we all know, the circuit board industry transfer is a long-term and in-depth process. Under the current circuit board industry environment, the automation level of the production line and equipment investment are the key.
According to the above-mentioned industry insiders, the PCB factory is a heavy equipment investment company. Most of the PCB manufacturers that have settled in are limited in strength, with an investment scale of about 1 billion yuan. Their infrastructure construction is divided into 2-3 stages. The first phase basically realizes the first batch of full-line production, with an investment standard of 300-600 million yuan.
However, the later high investment consumes a lot of funds. Even if the first stage of large-scale production has been completed, many companies are still at a loss.
At the same time, as PCB prices continue to fall, PCB manufacturers with higher investment will experience losses. For example, HDI circuit boards for mid-to-high-end investment are basically 300-600 million yuan in infrastructure costs, but the input-output ratio is only 50%-60%.
In addition, in recent years, domestic environmental protection supervision has become more and more stringent, especially for the PCB industry with high energy consumption and high emissions. The rectification efforts have been large, and PCB manufacturers are in a relatively difficult situation.
It is worth noting that from the second half of 2018 to the middle of this year, there have been relatively more mergers and acquisitions in the PCB industry. Among them, FPC's FPC factories will be acquired by listed companies more this year.
In particular, the escalation of trade frictions has forced the acceleration of the replacement of domestic high-end products FPC, IC carrier boards and high-frequency boards. In addition, the development of 5g commercial applications also places higher demands on PCB manufacturers. Traditional hard-board manufacturers are facing a transformation, from the hard-board into the development stage of the combination of soft and hard, also accelerate the pace of PCB manufacturers to reshuffle.
