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PCB (Printed Circuit Board) is an industry with a relatively low technical threshold. However, 5G communication has the characteristics of high frequency and high speed. Therefore, 5G PCB requires higher technology and the industry threshold is raised; at the same time, the output value is also pulled up. The industry believes that 5G is large The PCB value of a base station is about three times that of a 4G base station.
Since 2019, the global deployment of 5G base stations has been accelerated, and the first year of the 5G era has begun. In the new era, the demand for communication base stations is soaring, and the industry chain of related parts and components is prosperous, and the PCB industry chain is one of the most popular chickens.
5G base station construction drives PCB demand
Prismark, a research institute, preliminary estimates pointed out that in 2019, most PCB application areas experienced varying degrees of decline, but the output value of the server and data storage field bucked the trend and increased by 3.1%, reaching 4.97 billion U.S. dollars. On the other hand, wired infrastructure and wireless infrastructure The equipment growth rate was even higher, with annual growth rates of 6.2% and 7.1% respectively, and the amount reached 4.67 billion US dollars and 2.612 billion US dollars.
Prismark believes that the 5G era will stimulate the demand for communication PCBs, and it is mainly composed of 8- to 16-layer multi-layer boards and super high-rise boards with more than 8 layers. It is estimated that the compound annual growth rate from 2019 to 2024 will reach 6.5% and 8.8%, respectively.
In terms of domestic demand, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China, the number of 5G base stations in China in 2019 will exceed 130,000, the number of newly built 4G base stations will reach 1.72 million, and the total number of 4G base stations will reach 5.44 million.
Chinese telecom operators believe that the number of 5G large-scale base stations in China is about 1.2 to 1.5 times the number of 4G large-scale base stations. Compared with the number of million-level base stations in the 4G era, 5G will exceed 10 million in the scale of large and small base stations.
5G PCB production is difficult, raising the industry threshold
5G PCB communication boards have to meet the characteristics of high frequency and high speed, so there are higher requirements for multilayer high-speed PCB boards, metal substrates, etc. The industry generally believes that the price of 5G single base station PCBs has greatly increased, and the PCB value of each large base station is about It is about 3 times that of a 4G base station.
High-frequency, high-speed, large-inch and multi-layer characteristics make PCB not only rely on increasing the input of raw materials to complete the terminal demand. The production line to print these high-frequency and high-speed circuits not only requires high technology and equipment investment, but also requires the accumulation of experience of technicians and production personnel. At the same time, the client's certification procedures are strict and cumbersome.
At present, China's average 5G base station PCB product yield rate is less than 95%, but the high technology also raises the industry threshold in disguise, which can lengthen the production and operation cycle of related enterprises.
In addition to PCB, 5G also increases the demand for data computing and storage
At the same time, as 5G technology gradually matures, data transmission traffic will show explosive growth, and the demand for storage and computing will also increase significantly. IDC predicts that the global data transmission volume will increase by more than 5 times from 2018 to 2025, while the growth rate of the Chinese market is higher than the global average, about 6 times or more. Looking at 2018, China's three major telecom operators accounted for 51.6% of China's data center market. It can be said that the current largest demand for data centers in China lies in these telecom operators' orders.
Up to now, the 5G-related investment budgets of China's three major telecom operators have soared to RMB 180.3 billion this year, a growth rate of more than 300% compared with 2019. With the market’s increasing expectations for base station construction, referring to the second year of the 4G construction cycle, it is estimated that the construction of 5G base stations this year is expected to exceed 800,000, and related equipment suppliers will be the first to benefit.
Looking at the upstream PCB industry, the industry pointed out that the current orders for the base station part have been scheduled to June, and some of the Q1 orders have been deferred to Q2. In addition, China’s three major telecommunications companies began to actively call for bids after the “unblocking”. The total bids currently total about 480,000 base stations, and China Mobile’s second phase of 5G wireless network equipment procurement has far exceeded PCB market expectations. Reflects the boom in demand for PCB 5G hard boards in the future.
